Cape town: Africas need for refined products is set to surge, driven by demographic and economic forces.

According to African Press Organization, africas refined product demand is projected to climb from approximately 4 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2024 to over 6 million bbl/d by 2050.

While many advanced economies are moving to reduce their dependence on oil and gas, Africa is next in line to benefit from its own resources and has every right to do so, just as the developed nations of the world already have. This situation highlights both the opportunities for energy security and the challenges that lie ahead regarding infrastructure development.

Africa’s oil demand shows no sign of waning anytime soon. However, Africa’s trajectory is markedly different: Per capita consumption remains the lowest globally, particularly in sub-Saharan African nations, leaving substantial room for expansion as populations and GDPs rise. Forecasts suggest that the continent’s population could swell by more than 930 mi
llion people, reaching nearly 2.4 billion by 2050. This would account for 25% of the world’s population and 63% of global population growth between now and then.

Economic projections are equally substantial, with Africa’s 2050 GDP expected to nearly triple from what it is now to around USD7.8 trillion after growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.8-3.9% in the coming decades. Smaller, less developed markets will lead this charge, amplifying demand for energy-intensive activities. Currently, despite representing 18% of the global population, Africa consumes less than 5% of the world’s oil products and contributes just 3% to global GDP.

As the 2026 Outlook Report emphasizes, Africa’s oil demand will continue growing to 2050 and beyond, fueled by population growth, industrialization, and urbanization. Furthermore, while sub-Saharan Africa’s per capita oil demand is the world’s lowest, there is a dire need for an increased supply of oil and gas products, positioning the region as an engine for long
-term growth.

Africa is poised to become the primary driver of worldwide gasoline demand growth over the long term, offsetting declines in China and member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). The report projects that Africa’s gasoline consumption will exceed 2.2 million bbl/d by 2050, with Nigeria and emerging markets at the forefront.

Diesel/gasoil will see even more pronounced growth, with consumption expected to increase by about 880,000 bbl/d by 2050, nearly 50% from current levels, and growing to just under 2.7 million bbl/d. This positions Africa as the top growth region for the product, surpassing Latin America. Beyond road transport, demand will be propelled by the extractive industries. Investments in critical minerals that support energy transition are accelerating in mineral-rich Central and Southern Africa.

Jet fuel and kerosene demand is on the verge of a strong rebound in Africa with expectations that it will surpass its pre-COVID levels in 2025. I
nter- and intra-regional air travel is regaining momentum, with consumption projected to top 280,000 bbl/d this year and increase 65% by 2050, reaching a rate of 465,000 bbl/d.

Amid rising demand for refined products, LPG as a cooking fuel is the standout opportunity for cleaner energy. The 2026 Outlook Report identifies LPG as the most abundant and practical alternative to traditional biomass and coal for African households as it offers health and environmental benefits as well as a means of reducing emissions.

The modest projections in the report can be attributed to persistent policy and infrastructure hurdles. Regulatory frameworks, consumer financing plans, and distribution networks in rural and low-income areas would all need development. Without targeted investments, demand will remain suppressed.

Africa’s surge in demand for refined products is a multifaceted issue that will require proactive planning. Over USD20 billion in downstream infrastructure investment is needed by 2050 to handle imports a
nd distribution. Flagship projects like Nigeria’s Dangote refinery are vital but insufficient on their own, and the smaller initiatives in Angola and Uganda won’t bridge the gap.