The world population is projected to reach 8 billion on November 15, 2022, with India overtaking China as the world’s most populous country by 2023, according to World Population Prospects 2022 . , released today on World Population Day.
“This year, World Population Day marks a milestone, in which the Earth will host, for the first time, eight billion people. This is an occasion to celebrate our diversity, recognize our common humanity and marvel at the advances in health that have extended life expectancy and dramatically reduced maternal and infant mortality rates,” said UN Secretary-General António Guterres. “In turn, it is a reminder of our shared responsibility to care for our planet and a time to reflect on where we still fall short of our commitments to one another,” he added.
The world population is growing at its slowest annual rate since 1950, down less than 1 percent in 2020. The latest projections from the United Nations suggest that the world population could reach around 8.5 billion in 2030 and 9.7 billion in 2050. It is projected to peak at around 10.4 billion people during the 2080s and remain at that level until 2100.
The World Population Prospects 2022 report also indicates that fertility has declined markedly in recent decades in many countries. Currently, two-thirds of the world’s population lives in a country or area where lifetime fertility is less than 2.1 births per woman, the approximate level for reaching zero long-term growth in populations with mortality. short. The population of 61 countries or areas is projected to decline by 1% or more between 2022 and 2050, due to their persistently low levels of fertility and, in some cases, their high emigration rates.
More than half of the projected global population increase to 2050 will be concentrated in eight countries: Egypt, Ethiopia, India, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and the United Republic of Tanzania. Sub-Saharan African countries are expected to contribute more than half of projected global population growth to 2050.
“The relationship between population growth and sustainable development is complex and multidimensional,” said Liu Zhenmin, UN Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs. “Rapid population growth makes it more difficult to eradicate poverty, fight hunger and malnutrition, and expand the coverage of health and education systems. On the other hand, the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals, especially those related to health, education and gender equality, will contribute to reducing fertility levels and slowing down the growth of the world population”.
In most countries in sub-Saharan Africa, as well as in parts of Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean, the proportion of the population of working age (25-64 years) has been rising thanks to recent reductions in the fertility. This shift in the age distribution provides a time-limited opportunity for accelerated per capita economic growth, known as the “demographic dividend.” To maximize the benefits of a favorable age structure, countries must invest more in their human capital, ensuring access to health care and quality education at all ages, and promoting opportunities for productive employment and decent work.
The proportion of the global population aged 65 and over is estimated to increase from 10% in 2022 to 16% in 2050. By then, the number of people over 65 in the world is expected to more than double the number of children under 5 years of age, and will equal the population of children under 12 years of age. Countries with aging populations must take steps to align public programs with the growing number of older people, including establishing universal healthcare and long-term care systems, and improving the sustainability of social security and pension systems. .
Globally, life expectancy at birth reached 72.8 years in 2019, an improvement of almost 9 years since 1990. Future reductions in mortality are projected to translate into an average global longevity of around 77.2 years in 2050. However, the great inequalities between countries and regions of the world should not be lost sight of: in 2021, the life expectancy of the least developed countries was 7 years less than the world average.
The COVID-19 pandemic has affected all three components of demographic change. Global life expectancy at birth fell to 71.0 years in 2021. In some countries, successive waves of the pandemic may have produced short-term reductions in the number of pregnancies and births, while for many other countries there is little evidence of an impact on fertility levels or trends. The pandemic severely restricted all forms of human mobility, including international migration.
“Because of the relatively young age structure of today’s world population, further government action to reduce fertility would have little impact on the rate of population growth between now and mid-century. However, low fertility, sustained over several decades, could result in a further slowdown in world population growth in the second half of the century,” added John Wilmoth, Director of the Population Division of the Department of Economics and Social Affairs of the United States. The United Nations.
Source: UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs